The Paradox of Induction
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Occam razor and the paradox of induction
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There is no proof that one interpolation is better than another. In both cases of extrapolation and interpolation we can see the effect of a psychological law – which is, that when presented with two alternative theories we prefer the simplest. It has been argued that in science we should as a rule prefer the simplest of two competing theories – this rule is called Occam's razor: Given two theories that both explain the evidence equally well, prefer the simplest. However, this is not a principle that could be used to solve the problem of induction. It would be a scientific general law to say that whenever there are two theories the simplest theory always turns out to be the right one. Such a general law would have to be established by induction, so to use it to justify induction would be circular. We also have to ask the question: simplest for whom? If we had greater intellectual powers things that we find complex might appear simple to us. Simplicity is relative to our psychological limitations. In applying Occam's razor we are wanting the laws of the universe to be such that we can understand them, but there is no reason offered as to why the universe should be like this. In short, Occam's Razor cannot be used to solve the paradox of induction.
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Contents of
The Paradox of Induction
1 Prescriptive philosophy of science
2 The problem or paradox of induction
3 Hume and the formulation of the paradox of induction
4 Attempts to solve the paradox of induction
5 The paradox of induction and the claim that probability is all we ought to seek
6 Swinburn and confirmation theory
7 Falsificationism and the paradox of induction
8 Extrapolation and interpolation
9 Occam razor and the paradox of induction
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